Connecting the Dots – No Black Swans
04/20/2012 4 Comments
When I was in the Air Force, during one of my early performance review as combat crew member, my Pilot surprised me when he mentioned that I had an unusual ability to “connect the dots” and anticipate events. While it may have been true for subjects I studied intensely, it is certainly not true for those issues that I have treated in a more casual manner.
I think this is true for a lot of people if they have studied a subject in detail, one begins to observe trends and make a reasonable guess about coming events. That said, we live in a chaotic world and black swan events do happen. The black swan theory was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain the disproportionate number of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.
I have been studying climate change for years, connecting the dots, and we are not experiencing any more extreme weather today than we have in the past 50 years. In fact, in studying past grand minimums I found that the much colder climate created more climate extremes that we have seen in the last 50 years, including a year with out a summer, and global droughts that lasted 30 or more years.
It occurs to me that those promoting climate alarmism, like Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, David Suzuki, Al Gore who are claiming that human induced climate change is making our daily weather “more extreme” are really praying for black swan events. They are asking people to connect the dots, and then conclude that climate change is the cause. This is going to be hard for people who have studied the subject the subject in any detail, on the other hand had those treating the subject more casually, they can be taken in.
Here are some facts that you can use if approached by one of our local lefty warmers in an attempt to get you to “connect the dots” and promote extreme weather as a climate crisis.
The incident of large tornados are down:
No upward trends in drought:
No significant trend in wet weather:
No upward trend in hurricane cyclonic activity:
And, we have not seen any significant acceleration in global warming
Now you have have enough information to connect some dots. Did you see any extreme weather black swans in these data plots?
H/T to Warren Meyer for all the data graphics except the temperature from climate4you.