Oh No, More Computers Generated Fires In California!
06/12/2012 1 Comment
Living in the woods, articles on fires attract my attention, including the one below from KQED’s Climate Watch, that is until I got to the third paragraph and this, “The study, . . . analyzed the results of 16 different global climate change models.”
Oh, yes computer models that did not consider the wind, which is a major source of fire danger in Southern California.
“None of these wind-related phenomena are built into our models,” said Moritz. “Like the El Niño signal, the global climate models do not give us good wind projections.”
Interesting that the study does not address the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. The PDO is one of the dominate climate patterns along the pacific coast of California.
A new study projects fires in the western U.S. will become more frequent within the next 30 years.
Large fires in the western U.S. — such as those currently raging in Colorado and New Mexico – may be part of a shifting pattern of wildfire risk brought on by climate change, according to a study led by researchers at UC Berkeley.
The study, published Tuesday in the journal Ecosphere, analyzed the results of 16 different global climate change models. The models included variables such as annual precipitation and mean temperature of the warmest month and projected an increase in the frequency of fires across the majority of North America and much of Europe within the next 30 years.
“In the long run, we found what most fear — increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet,” said study lead author Max Moritz, a fire specialist with UC Berkeley, in a press release. “But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising.”
You can read the rest of the computer generated drivel HERE. The computer have shown no skill in predicting climate change over the last 20 years, why should we think these models are effective in predicting the climate over the next 30 years? Historical data indicates we are in for 30 years of cooling, not the warming predicted in the 16 computer models.