California Sea Level Rise Alarmism is Real, Sea Level Rise?
06/24/2012 8 Comments
I have discussed sea level rise along the coast of California in past blog posts HERE and HERE, and have received several e-mails alerting me to a recent National Academy of Scientist report for the Department of Water Resources. There were some alarmist articles in the San Francisco Chronicle and San Jose Mercury News. I was going to write another post exposing the weakness of the NAS arguments, but Willis Eschenbach in a guest post at Watts Up With That has done an excellent job of debunking runaway sea level rise in a highly visible way.
Figure 1. 160 years of sea level observations in San Francisco, California. Source: PSMSL
San Francisco has one of the longest continuous sea level records in the US. As you can see, there’s nothing too remarkable about the record. It is worth noting, however, that over the last 160 years the sea level in San Francisco has gone up by about 8 inches (20 cm) … and there are 12 inches in a foot (30 cm). It is also worth noting that during the last couple of decades it has hardly risen at all.
So what does the National Academy of Sciences projection of a one foot rise by 2030 look like?
Figure 2. High end projection of the National Academy of Sciences for the 2030 sea level in San Francisco.
This sudden sea level rise is based on computer modeled global warming which ignores that the earth has not been warming for the last 13-15 years depending on where you chose the starting point. The Sun is in the lowest sup spot cycle in 100 years and it appears the current cycle is peaking and will be declining. Historically the earth has cooled when the Sun spots decline. NASA has forecast that Cycle 25 will be lower than Cycle 24 which was the lowest in 100 years. With the earth cooling it is highly unlikely that Arctic glaciers and Antarctic snow pack will be rapidly melting in the next 18 years, or that the seas will expand in a cooling world.
The next time you see a National Academy of Science Report on climate change do not giggle, it might contain a fact or two, or maybe not!
Update (06-24-12, 14:59) Sean raises the question in the comments about the connection between sea level rise and the Ap Index with is a good indicator of solar sunspot activity. This graphic does not support that view unless some lag time is considered.
There appears to be some lag time between drop in Ap Index and sea level decline. Any thoughts?