Prop 23 Reality Check: Climate Change Models Are Wrong

Russ Steele

When California passed the AB-32 Global Warming Solution Act they used US and UK slimate models and UN IPCC reports to justify the need to reduce green house gases. Now we are learning that those models are not supported by real world facts. The climate models used to justify green house gas reduction policies assume that clouds were a positive feedback, studies are showing that clouds are a net negative feedback. Here is an example reported in the No Tricks Zone:

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that a natural atmospheric oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, is correlated to significant increases in cloud cover resulting in “large scale” local cooling of approximately -2.5C. All climate models falsely assume clouds result in net positive feedback and increased temperatures, however this new paper and several others show clouds instead result in net negative feedback and cooling. 

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, D13103, 7 PP., 2012 doi:10.1029/2012JD017626

Understanding sudden changes in cloud amount: The Southern Annular Mode and South American weather fluctuations

Key Points

  • Sudden regional increases in cloud cover are detected over S. America
  • Changes linked to the Southern Annular Mode
  • The cloud changes are associated with regional temperature reductions

Benjamin A. Laken

Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, La Laguna, Spain

Department of Astrophysics, Faculty of Physics, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, Spain

Enric Pallé Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, La Laguna, Spain

Department of Astrophysics, Faculty of Physics, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, Spain

This work investigates the cause and effects of extreme changes in synoptic-scale cloud cover operating at daily timescales using a variety of satellite-based and reanalysis data sets. It is found that the largest sudden increases detected in globally averaged cloud cover over the last ten years of satellite-based observations occur following positively correlated shifts in the phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index. The associated pressure anomalies are found to generate frontal cloud formation over large areas of the South American continent, increasing regional cloud cover by up to 20%; these changes are correlated to statistically significant reductions in local temperatures of approximately −2.5°C with a +1 day time lag, indicating the SAM index is associated with large scale weather fluctuations over South America.

If the models used to justify AB-32 were wrong, when do we review the science and resend this job killing regulation?


About Russ Steele
Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

3 Responses to Prop 23 Reality Check: Climate Change Models Are Wrong

  1. gjrebane says:

    But what if the backers of AB32 used their ‘science’ only to fool California’s naifs and useful idiots? Isn’t that the simplest explanation for what happened then, and what’s been happening since with CARB’s enforcement of this toxic cauldron of climate change regulations?

  2. Sean says:

    Wether the science is right or wrong is immaterial. It is a global phenomena and what California is doing is pointless. If the state is able to successfully curtail it’s emissions of CO2, China alone will overwhelm those savings in days. Your only hope is that the Republicans do well in the fall in the national elections. Then even CARB will realize how pointless all this is.

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