More Global Warming Bovine Deposits for Policy Makers
07/31/2012 3 Comments
The State of California once gain ignores reality and plunges into more climate change myth making. Today they issued a report titled:
Our Changing Climate 2012: Vulnerability & Adaptation to the Increasing Risks from Climate Change in California
According to a press release on the report:
Climate Change Reports Highlight Impacts and Challenges for California
Leading scientists outline opportunities for solutions
SACRAMENTO – Facing the severe threat of climate change, California policymakers and researchers announced new data to reduce and adapt to climate change in the Golden State.
According to new reports released by the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Energy Commission, state and local leaders now have a wealth of detailed information about adapting to climate change. The findings were announced today at a news conference at the California Emergency Management Agency.
“Significant increases in wildfires, floods, severe storms, drought and heat waves are clear evidence that climate change is happening now. California is stepping up to lead the way in preparing for – and adapting to – this change,” said Secretary for Natural Resources John Laird. “These reports use cutting-edge science to provide an analytical roadmap, pointing the way for taking concrete steps to protect our natural resources and all Californians.”
Where are these bovine deposits? Let’s start by examining the first statement I have highlighted above in blue.
“Increases in wildfires”
It is true that we have has some recent mega fires in the Western States, but are they the result of global warming, or are they result of forest mismanagement resulting in excessive fuel loads on the forest floor. A recent study of 1,500 years of fire history extracted from ancient tree rings found that mega forest fires of the southwestern U.S. are truly unusual and exceptional in the long-term record. However, they are not the result of global warming.
“Researchers constructed and analyzed a statistical model that encompassed 1,500 years of climate and fire patterns to test, in part, whether today’s dry, hot climate alone is causing the megafires that routinely destroy millions of acres of forest, according to study co-author and fire anthropologist Christopher I. Roos, Southern Methodist University, Dallas.”
“The researchers found that even when ancient climates varied from each other — one hotter and drier and the other cooler and wetter — the frequencies of year-to-year weather patterns that drive fire activity were similar.”
In other words through out history forest fires were just as likely during warm dry periods as they are during cool wet periods regardless of the weather pattern. However, the mega fires of today are atypical, but they are not from global warming. They are the result of years of fires suppression activities by humans.
“The U.S. would not be experiencing massive large-canopy-killing crown fires today if human activities had not begun to suppress the low-severity surface fires that were so common more than a century ago,” said Roos, an assistant professor in the SMU Department of Anthropology.”
Bottom line global warming does not cause wild fires humans do, they are the cause of the mega-fires.
California started to experience more fires after implementation of the fire suppression policy in the 1940s, and fuel loads started building in the 1950s and 1960s.
Now to increases in floods:
According the Press Release all these new record heat waves, sever storms, droughts, and floods were caused by global warming? No really, we live in California where fantasy is more believable than the real world facts.
Now to that part of the press release high lighted in green:
What was the “cutting-edge science” used to determine that California is threatened by global warming – Regional Climate Models.
• Studies from the third assessment used projections from six global climate models, all run with two emissions one lower (B1) and one higher (A2)
- Global modeling results were then “scaled down” using two different methods to obtain regional and local information.
However, there is growing evidence that down scaled models are useless.
Kevin E. Trenberth who leads the Climate Analysis Section at the USA National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote an essay in Nature entitled Predictions of climate In his essay, Trenberth wrote: “…..we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate.”
Pielke Sr., R.A., and R.L. Wilby, in a paper on Regional climate downscaling – what’s the point? , Eos Forum, listed a set of reasons that regional downscaling of multi-decadal models are not skillful. . . “It is therefore inappropriate to present …. multi-decadal climate prediction….results to the impacts community as reflecting more than a subset of possible future climate risks.”
Dr Pielke summarizes an number of peer reviewed studies in a post on his blog Climate Science and concludes that Kevin Trenberth, on the issue of regional down scaling, is correct.
“The significance is that multi-decadal regional impact studies, based on predictions of changes in climate statistics, are not only a waste of time and money, but are misleading policymakers.”
Today we have the Third Assessment Report for California policy makers that uses useless models to drive the mitigation of California warming that is not happening and cannot be effectively predicted in the future. A clear waste of our tax dollars by a state that is broke.
As I read the report I will report on other inconsistencies that I find with the real world we live in, like warming is accelerating in the Sierra.
H/T to Warren Meyer and Steven Goddard for the graphics.