Union Promotes Global Warming (Edited)(Updated)
08/06/2012 Leave a comment
This appeared in the Union out side the paywall. Video: Study by ‘global warming godfather’: Texas drought, Europe heat waves are climate change
The relentless, weather-gone-crazy type of heat that has blistered the United States and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can’t be anything but man-made global warming, says a new statistical analysis from a top government scientist.
The research by a man often called the “godfather of global warming” says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than 1 in 300. Now, the odds are closer to 1 in 10, according to the study by NASA scientist James Hansen. He says that statistically what’s happening is not random or normal, but pure and simple climate change.
Here are some facts Union Readers might want to consider from Anthony Watts:
Anthony comments on the NASA animation by Dr. James Hansen of surface temperature trends from 1955-1999:
There are many issues with this presentation. It seems to be a big Cherry Picking exercise.
1. Note all of the missing southern hemisphere data. There are operating weather stations during his time, but they are excluded from the analysis. Why?
2. The period chosen, 1955-1999 (in the bell curve animation) leaves out the warmer 1930′s and the cooler 2000′s. Why?
3. The period from 2000-present has no statistically significant warming. Leaving that period out (of the bell curve animation) biases the presentation.
4. The period chosen exhibits significant postwar growth, urbanization is not considered.
5. As for severe weather, Hansen ignores the fact that neither tornadoes nor hurricanes have shown any increase recently. Only smaller tornadoes show an increase, due to reporting bias thanks to easily affordable and accessible technology. NOAA’s SPC reports that July 2012 seems to be at a record low for tornadoes.
6. My latest results in Watts et al 2012 suggest surface station data may be biased warmer over the last 30 years.
The starting and ending points selected by the analyst often determines the end results. Here is yet again another case.
(Edited to remove insult asking if the Union staff can think. I got a nice e-mail from Brian asking me to I reconsider my insulting tone, as it was an AP article attributing all information to the appropriate sources.)
Update (21:45, 08-06-12) George Rebane has some thoughts on Hansen’s Op-Ed HERE.