Watch for More Unemployment Rate Distortion
08/18/2012 4 Comments
The Labor Department has been adjusting the employment numbers just like NOAA has been adjusting the temperatures, only in the opposite direction, temperatures up and employment down. However, just like Watts Up With That and Real Science are keeping NOAA honest, Gallup is keeping the Bureau of Labor Statistics honest.
Gallup reported an uptick in joblessness in their latest survey of 30,000 households.
“(T)his suggests that the government’s unadjusted [August] unemployment rate could increase to 8.7% … The government’s measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has been known to differ with Gallup’s findings, but a drop of 0.3% … is necessary to bring the government’s unadjusted rate down to Gallup levels.”
However, the figure that is most commonly used in reporting joblessness is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s (BLS’s) seasonally adjusted rate. Of that rate, Gallup notes:
“More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data.”
That would represent a .4% increase over last month’s numbers and would raise the official government jobless rate dangerously close to 9%.
More details HERE. It is worth noting that Unemployment went up in 44 states in July! The real questions is what will BLS report?