Watch for More Unemployment Rate Distortion

Russ Steele

The Labor Department has been adjusting the employment numbers just like NOAA has been adjusting the temperatures, only in the opposite direction, temperatures up and employment down.  However, just like Watts Up With That and Real Science are keeping NOAA honest, Gallup is keeping the Bureau of Labor Statistics honest.

Gallup reported an uptick in joblessness in their latest survey of 30,000 households.

“(T)his suggests that the government’s unadjusted [August] unemployment rate could increase to 8.7% … The government’s measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has been known to differ with Gallup’s findings, but a drop of 0.3% … is necessary to bring the government’s unadjusted rate down to Gallup levels.”

However, the figure that is most commonly used in reporting joblessness is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s (BLS’s) seasonally adjusted rate. Of that rate, Gallup notes:

“More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data.”

That would represent a .4% increase over last month’s numbers and would raise the official government jobless rate dangerously close to 9%.

More details HERE.   It is worth noting that Unemployment went up in 44 states in July!  The real questions is what will BLS report?


About Russ Steele
Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

4 Responses to Watch for More Unemployment Rate Distortion

  1. Arthur M. Day. says:

    What best advances His Oneness’ goals.

  2. Dena Wiltsie says:

    It matters little what they report as the numbers only reflect people receiving unemployment. It is not counting the 99ers who’s coverage has run out making the real numbers between 16% and 20%. The great depression’s numbers were between 20% and 25% so the truth is that we may be in a depression that matches the great depression in numbers if not length. Also note that many women have quit the labor force because of lack of work and are living off their husbands income totally uncounted. And the democrats complain about the republicans war on women!
    NOAA is only cooking the numbers by a small amount. The BLS may be cooking the numbers by as much as 1/3 there true value.

  3. gjrebane says:

    I don’t know, for some reason I think that unemployment can only stay the same or go down between now and 6 Nov. It’s just a feeling.

  4. Arthur M. Day. says:

    Our Government and Main Stream Media would make Herr Doktor Goebbels both proud and dismayed. Proud of the way they repeat and repeat ‘big lies’. And dismayed because they do it without the guidance and control of a Minister and Ministerium of Propaganda.

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