When Reality does NOT Fit the Model the Model Is WRONG!

 

 New evidence that water vapor is a negative feedback

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research asks the question, “Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of northwest China?” The runaway greenhouse theory alleges that warming from greenhouse gases will be amplified by increased evaporation and atmospheric water vapor. According to the theory, wet areas with the most atmospheric water vapor should warm faster than arid areas with less. However, observations from 1960-2010 show that the dry region of China warmed faster than the rest of China and the entire globe. The authors explain this apparent paradox as primarily due to theSiberian High, a natural atmospheric circulation. CO2 is well-mixed in the atmosphere and therefore cannot account for different rates of warming in different regions.

The finding that arid regions warm faster and cool faster than wet regions around the globe was confirmed by physicist Clive Best, who examined 5600 weather stations in the global CRUTEM4 temperature and humidity database, finding that water vapor acts as a strong negative feedback rather than a positive feedback as alleged by the IPCC.

[Clive Best] “the IPCC argues that  feedbacks from increased water evaporation will lead to enhanced warming. This is not observed in those regions most effected by water vapour. In fact the opposite seems to be the case implying negative feedback.”

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, D16115, 7 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012JD017953

Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of northwest China?

Key Points

  • Faster rise of annual temperature is mainly caused by winter temperature rising
  • The most important factor of winter temperature rising is Siberian High
  • The effect of Siberian High on temperature is greater than greenhouse gas’s

Baofu Li

State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China

Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Yaning Chen

State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China

Xun Shi

Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA

During 1960–2010, the air temperature in the arid region of northwest China had a significant rising trend (P < 0.001), at a rate of 0.343°C/decade, higher than the average of China (0.25°C/decade) and that of the entire globe (0.13°C/decade) for the same period. Based on the analysis of the data from 74 meteorological stations in the region for 1960–2010, we found that among the four seasons the temperature change of winter has been playing the most important role in the yearly change in this region. We also found that the winter temperature in this region has a strong association with the Siberian High (correlation coefficient: R = −0.715) and the greenhouse gas emission (R = 0.51), and between the two the former is stronger. We thus suggest that the weakening of the Siberian High during the 1980s to 1990s on top of the steady increasing of the greenhouse emission is the main reason for the higher rate of the temperature rise in the arid region of the northwest China.

Repost from The Hockey Schtick  This is a puzzle for our local warmers. All climate models are based on water vapor being a positive feedback. If in fact water vapor is a negative feedback, than all the global warming climate models are wrong, and we are no in danger of run away global warming.

Advertisements

About Russ Steele
Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

2 Responses to When Reality does NOT Fit the Model the Model Is WRONG!

  1. gjrebane says:

    In physics this phenomenon is affected by the specific heat of water. Water vapor has a higher specific heat than dry air. Therefore water vapor in the air absorbs radiant energy in greater amounts before it changes temperature, and thus acts as a buffer (or low pass filter) to rapid changes in radiant energy input. One of the ways this shows up on the thermometer is a time lag in temperature response to the diurnal cycle. Complicated stuff.

  2. Arthur M. Day. says:

    Desert nights cool faster than tropical nights as well. I learned that serving at Nellis AFB, Las Vegas NV and Tyndall AFB, Panama City FL.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: