Thinking About Sandy and Katrina Survival Modes

Russ Steele

Katrina was a August hurricane in the southern part of the US where the weather was quite warm before and after the hurricane. One of the big challenges for those that survived without power was to stay cool.

Sandy on the other hand was a winter hurricane in the norther part of the country, where cool fall weather is quite common. The challenge for the survivors will be to stay warm.

Below is the Unisys GFSX model forecast for the next 48 hours on the 5th.  By Wednesday the 7th it will be even colder, with winds from the north. By Sunday the 11th it is colder yet. It does not start warming until Monday the 12th.  This is going to be real challenge for those without heat and light.

The 1000 mb chart also shows near surface weather conditions. The parameters plotted are 1000 mb temperature in Celsius (in color contours), convergence (black lines, interval=2, shaded > 0), 1000 mb dewpoints in Celsius (colored lines, interval=5, bold orange=20, bold white=15, bold red=0, bold magenta=-15, bold gray=-30) and winds plotted as vectors.

On Thursday the 5th the rain starts with some snow in the higher elevations..

The sea level pressure and precipitation forecast chart includes three parameters: sea level pressure (cyan lines), 1000-500 mb thickness (brown dotted lines, 5100, 5400, 5700 solid lines) and quantitative precipitation (color contours).

If your would like to do your own analysis you can go here:  http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?i

Life in New York, New Jersey and surrounding region is going to be quite difficult for the survivors, unless the power and lights get turned on real soon now!

Human Misery of Hurricane Sandy Not Caused by Energy Policy

Russ Steele

One of my regular reads every day is Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog, he is a moderate voice in the climate change debate.  He had an insightful look at the impact of Sandy in the Wall Street Journal. Hurricanes and Human Choice

Sandy was terrible, but we’re currently in a relative hurricane ‘drought.  Connecting energy policy and disasters makes little scientific sense.

Hurricane Sandy left in its path some impressive statistics. Its central pressure was the lowest ever recorded for a storm north of North Carolina, breaking a record set by the devastating “Long Island Express” hurricane of 1938. Along the East Coast, Sandy led to more than 50 deaths, left millions without power and caused an estimated $20 billion or more in damage.

But to call Sandy a harbinger of a “new normal,” in which unprecedented weather events cause unprecedented destruction, would be wrong. This historic storm should remind us that planet Earth is a dangerous place, where extreme events are commonplace and disasters are to be expected. In the proper context, Sandy is less an example of how bad things can get than a reminder that they could be much worse.

In studying hurricanes, we can make rough comparisons over time by adjusting past losses to account for inflation and the growth of coastal communities. If Sandy causes $20 billion in damage (in 2012 dollars), it would rank as the 17th most damaging hurricane or tropical storm (out of 242) to hit the U.S. since 1900—a significant event, but not close to the top 10. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 tops the list (according to estimates by the catastrophe-insurance provider ICAT), as it would cause $180 billion in damage if it were to strike today. Hurricane Katrina ranks fourth at $85 billion.

To put things into even starker perspective, consider that from August 1954 through August 1955, the East Coast saw three different storms make landfall—Carol, Hazel and Diane—that in 2012 each would have caused about twice as much damage as Sandy.

Here is a graph from his blog.

The graph above shows normalized US hurricane damage, based on data from ICAT, which applies an extension to the methodology of Pielke et al. 2008. The 2012 estimate for Sandy comes from Moody’s, and is an estimate.  The red line represents a linear best fit to the data — it is flat

So there your have it! Sandy is not the new normal, regardless of what the lame steam press has to say, you now have the facts.

H/T to a regular reader for the WSJ article.

NBC is in the Tank for Climate Change Causing Sandy

Russ Steele

We are viewing the Sandy devastation on NBC. Yes, I know NBC. But some times we all need to see what the lame stream media is spewing.

First they reported that Sandy had the lowest atmospheric pressure ever recorded, creating the storm of the century.  Recorded is operative phase here.

They claim that are experiencing the new normal, warmer oceans, rising sea levels and more intense drought. The experts they flashed on the screen were Kevin Trenberth at NCAR, famous for his inability to find global warming in a Climategate e-mail, and  Dr Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech, who claimed the oceans are warmer than they use to be  and rising sea levels were part of the new normal.   Kayhoe sees a new normal everywhere.  ”It’s a new normal and I really do think that global weirding is the best way to describe what we’re seeing,” climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University told reporters.  She appears to be another climatologist that cannot recognize the difference between weather and climate.

 

An Interesting Coincidence?

Russ Steele

While we are watching the damage in New York City,  one has to wonder if it has happened before?  Before there was global climate change, which some of our local lefties want to blame on climate change. They are having a hard time distinguishing between climate change and weather.

That said, there was a 13.88 storm tide in the current storm. In the Great Hurricane of 1821 it was a 11.2 foot wall of water.  The difference this time is that the surge came at high tide with a full moon while in 1821, amazingly the surge came at low tide.

The 1821 Hurricane was one of four recorded tropical cyclones that have made landfall in New York City. One was the 1893 hurricane, another Irene 2011 and then Sandy in 2012. Technically these storms touched land first elsewhere before battering New York, but the Big Apple was swamped by the storm surge.

Ironically the 1821 hurricane was the last of 4 such recorded storms to target NYC from 1815 to 1821 during the Dalton solar minimum, a period not unlike the current period when Irene and Sandy hit in successive years.

We live in a chaotic world driven by chaotic cycles. Sometimes we have an opportunity to observe one of these cycles and wonder, are they related.

Something is Happening With the Sun

Russ Steele

I have a post at the Next Grand Minimum on changes on the sun which could have some long term impacts here on earth. Link is HERE, where this graphic is explained in more detail.

We could be headed for a Maunder level minimum, which took place during the Little Ice Age,  a cold period between AD 1550  and AD 1850.  There were three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.

There were no Sierra glaciers before the LIA. We could see these glaciers grow again if the sun experiences another Grand Minimum.  We are on the cusp of some very interesting times in solar history. Stay Tuned.

Real Science: Afternoon Invocation

Russ Steele

I am a Steven Goddard fan and found this on his blog this afternoon and wanted to share these truths with readers.

Always remember the CO2 commandments – carved in ice.

  1. A record Arctic minimum is proof of global warming
  2. A record high Antarctic maximum is none of your business
  3. Whatever the current weather is, we predicted it all along
  4. Snow is a thing of the past
  5. The record low Arctic minimum means lots of snow
  6. The southern hemisphere is filled with savages and is none of your business
  7. Hot weather is climate
  8. Cold weather is none of your business
  9. Global cooling causes extreme weather
  10. Global warming causes extreme weather

The bonus commandment for NOAA – adjust the numbers as much as needed

Enjoy!

 

If High Temps = Global Warming, Do Low Temps = Global Cooling?

Russ Steele

The United States recently had a spate of high temperatures and our local lefties declared it was a sure sign of global warming. Never mind that the rest of the world was not experiencing any extreme high temperatures. Now the same region is having a spate of low temperatures. If we follow the local lefts logic, the low temperatures mean we were in for global cooling.

I think we can conclude that our local left is using faulty logic.  The warming and the cooling is just weather!  Now if we have multiple years of early summer cooling then we might want to take notice.